[Mobility Assessment 2021]
The coronavirus pandemic meant that 2020 was also a special year for mobility.
[Peter Bakker, senior researcher, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis] We look back on this special year in our Mobility Assessment,
while also looking forward to the coming years.
A key question is whether some of the coronavirus’ effects are permanent.
We consequently give special attention to that question.
[How did the coronavirus impact mobility in 2020?]
A first and key observation
is that the coronavirus pandemic impacted passenger transport much more than freight transport.
Zooming in on passenger transport,
we see that the pandemic had a particularly significant impact
on public transport and passenger aviation.
In 2020, the previous years’ sharp increases in use turned into substantial,
decreases of half or more compared to 2019.
Office work is most suitable for teleworking.
Consequently, the largest decrease in commuter traffic occurred in the office sectors.
And that impacts public transport.
Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, many office workers commuted via public transport.
They therefore made far fewer trips via public transport in 2020 than in 2019.
And the pandemic had a major impact on traffic congestion.
Because drivers were no longer commuting to offices during peak hours,
there was also much less congestion in the latter quarters of 2020 than prior to the pandemic.
[Did the epidemic not impact freight transport?]
Freight transport, which is largely internationally oriented,
experienced relatively few direct effects from the pandemic.
In cases where the pandemic interrupted production in European and Asian countries,
some parts of the international goods flow were temporarily interrupted.
This was exacerbated by a partial reduction in demand,
for fuel for example.
Shifts also occurred within freight transport.
Due to restrictions imposed on the hospitality and retail industries,
the Dutch more frequently shopped
and grocery shopped online and ordered meals.
This resulted in fewer supplies for restaurants and retail trade
and more for home delivery.
But we also saw developments in freight transport in 2020 that were separate from the epidemic.
Due to energy transition, much less gas from the Netherlands passed through pipelines.
And international rail freight and inland waterway shipping
found that there was reduced demand for coal in Germany.
[So did less mobility in 2020 also mean fewer adverse effects?]
We examined the social effects of reduced mobility.
First, for traffic congestion;
second, for road safety;
and third for the emission of harmful substances.
I will go through these three.
There was less traffic on the main road network in 2020
than in 2019.
Those still travelling by car encountered very little congestion.
2020 was a special year.
Extra trip time due to delays
decreased in 2020 by four times as much as mobility.
We usually don't see such a strong relationship.
This was primarily due to the decrease in traffic during the morning and evening peaks.
The recommendation to telework also played a key role in this,
as I’ve already mentioned.
And then road safety.
In the area of road safety,
traffic fatalities decreased in 2020,
although they had been increasing in recent years.
And this decrease occurred across all transport modes, except for bicycles.
It was already known that generally the Dutch have started to cycle less.
However, it’s precisely the more at-risk cyclists who continue to cycle as much as in previous years.
And the e-bike was used more often.
Finally, emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions also decreased between 2019 and 2020.
This was entirely due to the decreased greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars.
The question now of course is whether these reductions will remain permanent
or rebound once the pandemic ends.
We’re already seeing significant increases in traffic in 2021.
[When will mobility return to 2019 levels?]
What can we expect from mobility growth over the next five years?
The future is always uncertain,
so we use scenarios that result in a bandwidth.
We use economic studies.
First, though,
we examined whether the coronavirus pandemic will have lasting effects on mobility.
We expect increased teleworking, teleconferencing and distance education
to have a long-term dampening effect on mobility growth.
Some of those we surveyed also indicated that they’d continue to use public transport less.
They’ll instead use cars or bicycles more frequently,
or opt to walk.
These two effects will slightly dampen the growth of car use,
and somewhat more the growth of public transport.
Not much will change for bicycles,
and we will walk more.
In addition to these reductions, there are also mobility developments that would occur otherwise,
owing to economic developments and population growth, for example.
Generally, we expect the following to occur.
After significant dips in 2020 and 2021, road traffic on the main road network
will again increase considerably in 2022.
It is expected to return to 2019 levels in 2022 or 2023.
For trains, we expect that by 2023 passengers will be travelling the same total distance they did in 2019,
or by 2026 should a downturn occur.
[An overview of the development of mobility in 2020]
This was a brief overview of how mobility developed in 2020,
a year in which the coronavirus had a major impact on our mobility.
We’re already seeing a lot of mobility rebounding in 2021
However, we’ve also shown that there will be lasting effects from the coronavirus pandemic in the years ahead.
We’ll of course be keeping a sharp eye on these developments.